Sunday News

Nate Silver has an exhaustive and exhausting post on how Republicans could win the White House while losing further slices of the Latino vote. It's doable, but extremely hard. They have to hope for a double-dip recession and a divisive appeal to white voters. That's the kind of short-term idea that leads to long-term defeat (i.e. Karl Rove might love it). I didn't realize this:

In 2008, the Latino vote made the difference in

the outcome of three states: New Mexico, where about 2 in 5 voters

identify as Hispanic, as well as -- somewhat surprisingly -- Indiana

and North Carolina -- where Obama lost nonhispanic voters by a tiny

margin and was put over the top by Hispanic votes. It probably also

made the difference, believe it or not, in the 2nd Congressional

District of Nebraska -- Omaha actually has a decent-sized Hispanic

minority -- although the exit polls aren't detailed enough to let us

know for sure.

Nate's bottom line:

This is the sort of electoral future the GOP might

have to contemplate if they start losing the Hispanic vote by margins

of 3:1, 4:1 or more. Giving up on New Mexico, Nevada and Colorado is a

feasible, and perhaps even wise, strategy. But if they don't thread the

needle just perfectly, and they make it difficult for themselves to win

back Florida, while putting Arizona and perhaps even Texas increasingly

into play, their task will become nearly impossible.